Warm and dry winter tipped by bureau

Craig Warhurst

A WARM and dry winter is expected for most states in Australia this winter, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

The bureau's latest seasonal outlook says the chances of Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and southwest NSW and Western Australia getting more than average rainfall are less than 40 per cent from June to August.

Climate scientist Elise Chandler said the surface temperature of the ocean was warmer, a hangover from an El Nino event which started last year and is set to end.

El Nino, which causes a rapid warming of the south Pacific Ocean happens every four or five years and results in drought conditions on the east coast.

The reverse, a La Nina, is expected to kick in later this year, bringing increased rainfall to the eastern Australian states.

"The indication is that the La Nina could well eventuate, the probabilities are starting to swing towards it happening," Ms Chandler said.

"But at the moment we are still in that borderline period."

Warmer than average daytime temperatures are expected during winter over most of WA, the Northern Territory and Queensland.

"The pattern of seasonal temperature odds across Australia is due to recent higher than average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans," the bureau said.

Queensland and most of New South Wales could exceed the average rainfall, with a 50 to 60 per cent chance of doing so.

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